The Minke Whale Stock in the Northeast Atlantic:
Error in the Stock Estimate
- New Estimate to be Submitted in Spring 1996

In 1992, the International Whaling Commission 's Scientific Committee confirmed that the best estimate for the Northeast Atlantic minke whale stock was 86,700. In the report from the meeting of the Scientific Committee in May, 1995, it says that this estimate is no longer valid. The reason for this is that Norwegian scientists discovered an error in the software used to calculate the size of the stock. The error was not discovered until April of this year, and the Scientific Committee was therefore unable to assess the revised estimate of 75,000 which had been submitted by the Norwegian scientists. The Committee has developed routine procedures to ensure that similar errors do not occur in the future.

The Scientific Committee has appointed an expert group which, in March 1996, is scheduled to submit a revised stock estimate based on the counting surveys which were completed in 1989, and a new stock estimate based on the counting surveys carried out in July 1995.

Norway has committed itself to using the IWC's newly developed quota calculation model in the management of minke whales. In accordance with this model, the development of the stock is to be monitored by way of counting surveys every six years. Eleven boats are taking part in this year's count and there are foreign scientists together with observers on board each of the vessels. Norway has also committed itself to relate to the prevailing stock estimate from the IWC Scientific Committee. In connection with this year's harvest, when no valid stock estimate was available from the Committee, the Norwegian authorities displayed additional caution, reducing the hunting quota to the extremely low level of 232 minke whales. Last year's quota was 301.

In accordance with the IWC quota calculation model, quotas are allocated for a period of 6 years. The results of the Norwegian hunts between 1989 and 1995 are far below the quotas which would have been allowed by the model on the basis of a stock estimate of 75,000 minke whales.

During the 1994 meeting of the Scientific Committee, there was some debate regarding one of the basic factors involved in the calculation of the estimate, the so-called "detection rate factor". An expert group was appointed to clarify these problems. The group submitted a report to this year's Scientific Committee meeting, where it says that agreement has been reached on this point. The group's conclusions have been incorporated into the Norwegian scientists' revised stock estimate of 75,000. The Norwegians maintain that the result of these discussions has had little influence on the stock estimate, and that the reduction from 86,700 to 75,000 is first and foremost attributable to the programming errors.