Source: High North News, No.11, Nov. 1996, published by the High North Alliance

    The Minke Whale Stock in the Northeast Atlantic:

    New Estimates Approved by the IWC Scientific Committee

    The international group of scientists appointed by the Scientific Committee of the International Whaling Commission (IWC) reached in May 1996 consensus on an estimate of 112,000 minke whales in the North-East Atlantic (confidence limits 90,000 to 135,000). This estimate is based on a new line transect survey which was carried out in 1995 using methodology previously approved by the Scientific Committee. An additional 6000 minke whales were assigned to a survey block north and east of Jan Mayen island. International observers and scientists were present on the vessels, including 4 of the 9 scientists who took part in the group that finally established the estimate. The IWC Scientific Committee has later “agreed that the estimates of abundance are adequate for use in the Revised Management Procedure”. (The IWC Scientific Committee, 1996 Report)

    The international group of scientists also conducted a recalculation of the estimate from the 1988/89 survey. The new figure of 65,000 was also endorsed by the Scientific Committee. The recalculations came as a result of problems in reproducing the estimate of 86,700 confirmed by the Scientific Committee in 1992. Errors were found in the computer software used. The software has now been subject “to an extensive and independent review”. (SC Report, 1996, p 16).

    The international group of scientists noted that the estimates from the 1995 survey and the 1988/89 survey are not directly comparable owing to differences in methodology. The Scientific Committee report notes that the estimate from the 1995 survey is “a more reliable estimate” than that resulting from the 1988/89 survey. Among the reasons given for this, is that during the 1995 survey there were two observer platforms on every vessel with two independent teams of observers. This was not the case in 1988/89, but a separate independent observer experiment was performed in 1990 with two platforms on one vessel. The Scientific Committee also gives other reasons why the 1988/89 estimate could be seriously downwards biased, but notes that “a natural rate of increase” is a very likely factor involved regarding part of the difference between the two estimates.

    For further information on the discussion in the IWC Scientific Committee, see: the article “Why this sudden change of mind” in Extracts from the 1996 International Harpoon.

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