The IWC's new "quota calculation model" is known as the Revised Management Procedure. The most important consideration taken in the development of this mathematical model is security against depletion. A problem with the early calculation models was that they did not take account of the uncertainty of data, e.g. key figures like the size of the stock. The new model has uncertainty as an "independent factor". The greater the uncertainty, the smaller the quotas. Too large a degree of uncertainty leads to zero quotas. The model requires surveillance of the development of the stock by way of counting surveys every 5 years. If this is not carried out, the quota will be phased out. Data from the harvest and counts are fed back into the model, and the quotas are adjusted automatically.
The model is designed to prevent the harvest of stocks that are depleted. Data from the history of the harvest of stocks is important in this context. The model has been run through a number of computer tests where various scenarios, including ecological catastrophes, are entered into the computer to find out how safe the model is against depletion.
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